24/09/2020. AC Milan - FK Bodø / Glimt (Europa League). Corners evaluation based on indicators relations

Corner-stats.com expert team is back in touch!

Following the start of the new football season in most countries, games have also begun in Champions League and Europa League tournaments, where qualifications are currently taking place. Teams from different European countries compete in these tournaments, so it is not so easy to assess the teams' chances by different statistical indicators.

In this preview, the Corner-stats.com team will try to evaluate the corners using the example of Milan - Bode/Glimt (Europa League) match. If we look at the summary tables of the Italian Serie A and the Norwegian Eliteserien, we get the following average team corners: 5.51 for Milan (previous and current seasons), 6.67 for Bode/Glimt (current season). But, as you understand, this information in our case is not informative, since the championships of Italy and Norway are at different levels.

The Corner-stats.com team suggests using the tool Relations of indicators of the site Corner-stats.com to estimate corners. If we choose the ball possession to corners relation in Serie A and Eliteserien, then we get the following numbers: 8.33% of possession for 1 corner for Bode/Glimt (6th in the league), 10.03% of possession for 1 corner for Milan (11th place in the league). The first conclusion to be drawn from this is that Bode/Glimt are more likely to take corners than Milan.

Given that Milan is the clear favorite in the match, we can fairly confidently assume that Milan will have much more ball possession. Taking the expected 65% to 35% teams possession (as in Milan's previous League Europe match against Shamrock Rovers), we can calculate the expected number of corners based on the possession to corners ratio:

Milan: 65% / 10.03% = 6.48 corners

Bode/Glimt: 35% / 8.33% = 4.20 corners

Based on the calculated numbers, a bet on the team total corners of Bode/Glimt over 3.0 at the odds 1.75 looks attractive.

We hope you enjoyed our preview and discovered new insights. Have a nice football!